Be wary of knock-out cup games.
In the early rounds of knock-out competitions, teams may give their lesser-used squad players a run-out to help these players achieve or maintain match fitness and to give their much-used players a well-deserved rest. This is particularly true when a team is much more highly ranked than its opponents. Such an action greatly increases the chances of a result for the lower-ranked side.
In ties played over two legs, if one side wins the first leg by more than three goals, they may “take it easy” in the second leg and may even field a weaker eleven. This can affect a turn-around in form and perhaps a smaller margin win on the day for their opponents. The same can happen in a round-robin group stage if a team is playing a fixture when already assured of qualification for the next stage.
In the later rounds of knock-out competitions teams are generally more evenly matched, old rivals often are drawn against each other, there is more pride at stake, plus a real chance of winning some silverware for the trophy cabinet. Consequently, clubs tend to field their strongest elevens. This can make their form more reliable.
Don’t allow emotions to influence your decision
If you have a favourite team or teams, don’t bet on them just because you want them to win. The same with teams you may dislike. Don’t discount them or back them to lose just because you want them to. Subject your favourite and disliked teams to the same research and selection process as any other team.
Don’t be greedy
Think twice about adding other elements to the bet just to increase the odds and therefore the potential payout. By other elements I mean actions such as forming an accumulator, adding the expected number of goals, number of corners, number of cards, named goalscorer, and so on.
TIP: Beware of bookmaker special bet offers that feature three or four of these elements together for a special price. These offers are designed to part you from your money.
The most likely-to-win bet is a simple single. Every time you add something to the bet, it increases the number of possible outcomes and therefore reduces your chances of your desired outcome happening.
Remember, a little bit of something when you win is better than a lot of nothing when you lose.
Go with your gut feeling
When you have a list of possible outcomes to bet on that have passed all the previous criteria, the final selection choice comes from how you feel deep down inside about each individual contender.
Choose the selections from your list that you feel really confident about. Matches that you cannot decide on are best discarded, along with any you are not feeling too confident about.
The bookmakers have setting the odds down to a fine art, and the only possible way to beat the odds is by using your research, your own knowledge and skill together with your instinct. Learn to trust your instinctive feelings towards a bet. This will improve with experience; experience you can only achieve by actually placing bets and observing the outcomes.
The Final Selection
After all of this, what you have left is the list of matches from which to make up the day’s bets. Even then, when you are piecing your bets together you will in all probability still find yourself discarding some selections. There is more to come on this in the Betting To Win Strategy section next.