The Required Win Rate
In the Bet Selection Tips section, I advise on bet selections between odds of 1.2 and 2.0, particularly when working with leagues and teams we need to become more familiar with.
If all of your selections are at 1.2 odds, you will need to win five out of six bets just to break even. So, in order to make a profit a win rate of six bets from seven is required. This equates to an 86% win rate. But all of your bets aren’t going to be at 1.2.
If all of your selections are at 2.0, you only need to win one from two to break even. This means to make a profit, you need to win two out of three at this price, which is a 67% win rate. But all of your bets aren’t going to be at 2.0.
In reality, you will probably find your bets averaging around the 1.4 mark, or slightly higher. For the purpose of erring on the side of safety, we’ll use the lower figure of 1.4 to base our figures on. Betting at an average of 1.4 odds, you need to win three out of four bets, or 75%, to make a profit. Three wins at 1.4 = 1.2 profit, minus 1 loss still leaves a 0.2 profit.
It follows then that the minimum win rate mathematically required to make the Betting To Win Strategy work is 75%. I am all for the employment of safety margins that are in our favour, so let’s use another one and say that the minimum win rate required for the success of the Betting To Win Strategy is 80% or four out of five bets.
This is achievable by a mixture of researching your selections thoroughly, gaining valuable bet selection experience, and developing a good sense of match event prediction.
RECAP: The minimum win rate required to make the Betting To Win Strategy profitable is 80% or four out of every five bets on average.
Here is a snapshot of my first 25 bets from July 2023. The green scores are wins, the red ones are losses. There are 20 green scores and 5 red. 20 out of 25 = 80%. It is achievable.